Syrians at a crossroads
What can Germany do to help those who actually want to return
In the two weeks since Bashar al Assad fled to Moscow, many politicians jumped at the opportunity to suggest that Syrians might or could or should go back. The discussion in Germany, home to the largest Syrian community in Europe, is driven by February’s federal election. The larger opposition parties are calling for those who “did not integrate” to be shown the door one way or another, mindful of polling that suggests that most voters1 think Syrians with jobs should be allowed to stay.
The intense politicking around their future certainly casts a shadow over the excitement of Germany’s Syrians, who can finally be hopeful that their country will build back better after five decades of Assad rule and almost 14 years of civil war. Over 160,000 of them are now German citizens and can decide freely if and how to engage with the new Syria, even though they are not immune to the adverse effect of ‘mass return’ rhetoric on their community. For the 700,000 people who are still beneficiaries of international protection, this discussion can be a deeply unnerving.
Of course, (mainstream) politicians should be expected to behave responsibly and protect Syrians from those who would question whether their existence in Germany is even legitimate. Schoolyard bullies won’t check the 206,000 Syrian schoolchildren for papers before they target them with hateful slogans they got from grownups. Any discussion of large-scale returns is, at the very least, premature.2 Returning to Syria is not the ‘right’ (or ‘wrong’) choice – even if there was some sort of iron-clad guarantee that the new Syria will be a utopia for all of its people.
Meanwhile, some Syrians are following the developments in their homeland from afar, wondering whether to return or not. Ideally, they would be able to see what is happening for themselves. However, Germany’s federal commissioner for migration implied last summer that Germany would be “stupid” to allow people to keep their protection status even if they took trips to their home country. In October, the Bundestag obliged and passed a law that strips refugees of their status “as a rule” if they return to their countries of origin, even if temporarily.
For Syrians looking at their post-Assad country and wondering whether to bet their lives and futures on it, this rule can be a deal breaker. The price of losing the right to live in Germany is way too high just to take a look and figure out whether your house is still standing or not. Not to mention credible fears that the different groups that brought Assad down might still decide to turn on each other in the coming months.
If Germany is interested in helping Syrians return to their country and participate in its reconstruction, it has to make sure that it does not make the choice to do so even riskier than it is. To begin with, it has to make clear that, as a rule, Syrians are now allowed to travel home without losing their status in Germany.
Some Syrian refugees, as well as naturalised Germans of Syrian origin, also receive some form of financial support from the state. Germany should allow Syrians who return home to continue receiving these cash transfers for a transitional period, including a limited amount of time during which Syrians would be allowed to reverse their decision and return to Germany. This would further de-risk the choice to return home and help Syrians set themselves up in their new surroundings.
Measures like these are far more likely to help the German federal government act upon its support for the safe return of refugees than Austria’s offer of a one-off 1,000 euro check.3 The decision to return home is often an emotional one. Policymakers should help Syrians make it also a rational one.
Including three quarters of those who will vote for the far-right AfD.
Militants are still calculating their next moves (and fighting each other in some parts of the country). One of them told the Guardian that if “HTS do not deliver on their promises of money and jobs, we will go back to fighting them.”
That idea has found support among the likely winners of Germany’s next federal election, including the CDU’s deputy leader.